Wednesday, March 7, 2012

"Super Tuesday" - Did Social Media Call It In Advance?

4 Ways Social Media Predicted Super Tuesday Results

1) T-SHIRT SALES:  Online T-shirt retailer CafePress says sales of their custom made mechanise can predict election winners.   Because their sales are user-generated, CafePress considers itself a cultural barometer.    In 2008, CafePress correctly predicted Barack Obama to win the presidential election.   We will soon see if their prediction success continues.
CafePress Prediction: Mitt Romney will win 5 of 10 states. Rick Santorum will win 2 states.

2) TWEETS: Through tallying how many times a candidate is mentioned in tweets, predictions have been made on several political elections in the past.  The technique has been streamlined to consider positive or negative mentions and number of followers, but has still wavered in prediction success, and gathered up much criticism from experts.  
Twitter Predictions:  No official predictions from Twitter.  There are far too many independent predictions using tweets to name, but the vast majority predict Romney or Santorum.

3) FACEBOOK INTERACTION: By focusing specifically on Facebook, social media analytic group Socialbackers believes they can predict results for Super Tuesday.  Their analytics include candidate's Facebook exchanges, page posts and fans.  The big question here is if Facebook user intentions will mirror the intentions of actual voters.  
Socialbackers Predictions: Mitt Romney

4) DASHBOARDS: SocialMatica, a social media analytics firm, goes far beyond just tallying online mentions.  The firm created an algorithm that analyzes context, sentiment and the influence of the person posting across web channels.  Their results include not only predictions for Super Tuesday winners, but also insight into what the hot topics are to voters in each state.
SocialMatica Prediction: Mitt Romney will win 7 of 10 states.

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